To view this email in your browser click here.
Forecasting Population Change with Simulation
This month we consider the application of SIMUL8 in forecasting population change and in particular a user project to forecast ‘Criminal Justice Populations in Texas’. We’ll also look into the benefits of our Direct Modeling Support service and how this helped to deliver the project. Read the full case study below.
If you have a topic you would like to see covered or if you have any feedback on the SIMUL8 newsletter, please get in touch.
Achieve a Quicker ROI with SIMUL8 Direct Modeling Support
Direct Modeling Support (DMS) allows you to get the maximum benefit from your simulation project by giving you one to one access with our experienced SIMUL8 simulation consultants. With DMS you learn the skills needed to allow you to make decisions quickly through support in the development of simulations and analysis of results. Visit the website to learn more or contact us to discuss your project needs.
|
|
|||
|
SIMUL8 NEWS |
Free DMS with SIMUL8 2009 |
||
|
More businesses than ever are using See how HP have used SIMUL8 to improve their production throughput and and increase profits to their bottom line. Tell us how you've used SIMUL8 to improve your business and you could win an iPod touch. |
 |
Purchase SIMUL8 2009 Professional between now and 31st December 2009 and receive a free one to one DMS session with one of our expert simulation consultants. DMS will allow you to receive specific advice on the development of your simulation and in the analysis of results, and can be delivered remotely. When purchasing quote REF:NLDMS09 or contact us to discuss your requirements. |
|
|
|
|||
 |
SIMUL8 2009 |
||
|
|
|||
October Feature Article
Forecasting Population Change with Simulation
With the constant media focus on the strain of increasing populations on services and resources, the need to forecast change and plan accordingly has never been so important.
Today many organizations use SIMUL8 software to forecast this change across a variety of different environments. The following case study looks at a user project to forecast the criminal justice population in Texas and was sent to us by Garron Guszak, Senior Criminal Justice Specialist at the Texas Legislative Budget Board. Garron and his team worked closely with our Direct Modeling Support to develop the simulation and deliver the project.
Forecasting Criminal Justice Populations in Texas
Over the last 20 years, the prison system in Texas has dramatically expanded, with significant investment made in increasing prison capacities. Despite this investment, the Texas department of Criminal Justice was still forced to contract with county jails to house around 2000 prisoners due to prison overflow, at a cost of $27.5 million per year. It was also forecasted that the number of prisoners would continue to grow if the existing policies remained, so ongoing strategic preparation for this growth was crucial.
In an attempt to deal with the increase in population, the Texas Department of Criminal Justice requested $377.7 million for 4080 additional prison beds to be incorporated by 2012. However, this would still not be sufficient to handle the anticipated growth.
It was therefore decided that rather than buying and creating space for additional beds, strategic reinvestment decisions would be made to try and reduce the demand for prison space.
The Approach |
|||||||
|
Working with SIMUL8 Direct Modeling Support a simulation was developed to enable the Legislative Budget Board test the impact of various Texas Justice Reinvestment scenarios. These included: |
|||||||
|
|
|||||||
|
|||||||
|
In addition to these scenarios, the simulation had to convey the impact The simulation had to allow for quick and easy experimental analysis. Costs had to be applied for each step in the process, allowing the end user to quickly determine the cost implications in applying various proposed scenarios. This meant that clear and easily accessible results from the simulation were highly important. |
these reinvestment scenarios would have on parole board members willingness to approve parole candidates for release, as this would in turn affect the number going to prison.The following components and capabilities were incorporated in the SIMUL8 simulation:
 |
An input component that feeds the simulation with system intakes, allowing for growth trends and seasonal variations. |
|
|
An input file that allows for changes in the simulation with regards to admissions, such as length of stay, time served requirements, age, health status, residence etc. |
|
|
Detailed reports of monthly populations, intakes and release activity which are downloaded to spreadsheets after model runs. |
|
|
An input for stock (beginning) population. |
|
|
Apply / alter capacity constraints at any point in time. |
Inclusion of all these capabilities allowed for a flexible tool that could be used to test many different Texas Justice Reinvestment Scenarios both quickly and easily:
The Result
Having built, run and tested scenarios in the SIMUL8 simulation, key decisions were made based upon the results obtained. Lawmakers agreed to a plan where $221 million would be used for treatment and sanction programs.
It was also determined that by implementing their proposed scenarios, future prison populations would be significantly lower than those previously forecasted.
Going forward, the model will be used to help law makers and policy makers understand the connections between different segments of the criminal justice system, subsequently allowing for policy options to prepare for and alleviate the current projected growth in prison populations.
This application is a classic example of how simulation can be used to predict performance, taking the risk out of decision making and preventing costly business errors. Working with SIMUL8 Direct Modeling Support allowed Garron and his team to reach more indepth conclusions and achieve faster results that ultimately delivered greater benefits for their organization.
You are receiving this e-mail because you subscribed to or are a registered SIMUL8 user. To unsubscribe click here.