Using SIMUL8 with Agent Based Modeling

In this issue of our Newsletter we look at a hot-topic in the world of simulation - agent based modeling. We explain how you can use agent based simulation, its potential benefits, and how SIMUL8 can be used to emulate many of its processes. Read the full article below.

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September Feature Article

Using SIMUL8 with Agent Based Modeling

Recently we’ve been looking at agent based modeling - a simulation technique that’s been used since the 1990s by academics. It’s becoming more popular in industries such as travel, safety and marketing because it’s more oriented to the way those industries think. We’ve been assessing how SIMUL8 can be used for agent based modeling and whether there is enough demand and benefit in the technique for us to add specific functionality to SIMUL8, and we'd like to hear your views.

There are three types of simulation relevant to business: Discrete Event Simulation (DES), System Dynamics (SD) and Agent Based Modeling (ABM). SIMUL8 started as pure DES but in version 3 we added some SD functionality because some users need to combine the two.

ABM takes yet another perspective on simulation. Rather than modeling from an overall picture of the flow in a system, ABM is centered on interacting individuals with a view to assessing the system-wide effects of their individual behavior and interactions. Those individuals are known as the agents in a model, typically replacing work items (entities) in a DES model.

This makes ABM particularly suitable for modeling situations where large numbers of humans are present and each make their own choice between many alternatives. It makes it easy to include individuality and see the impact on the overall system of the variations in different people's behavior.

Where ABM is Used

Most often ABM is used to model systems where outcomes have a high degree of dependency on the actions of humans. Common applications include the spread of diseases or information between populations; people or traffic movements, the impact of marketing campaigns etc.

For example in Healthcare diseases like flu and MRSA can be modeled using agents whose infection status changes over time. It starts as “uninfected” may become “weak, could be infected”, then “infected, likely to transmit” etc. Infections can be transmitted based upon contacts between people, while taking proximity and time of contact into account. Behavioral aspects can consider that people showing symptoms are likely to stay at home to limit their contacts and further spread of the disease. For hospitals and health planners these models can be used to test out the most effective strategies for stopping the spread of epidemics.

Agent Based Modeling using SIMUL8

Agent Based Modeling has yet to become really popular as the practical commercial applications are limited. It’s also often very difficult to obtain the data you need to make an accurate simulation. For example: What is the likelihood that I will buy a package of TV channels because I have seen one of the channels in a friend’s house?

However, like with the combination of parts of SD with DES, we see real potential in the combination of DES, with ABM. This gives the process view required to make process decisions but also gives the additional influence on the system of the mass combination of individual behavior.

With SIMUL8’s current functionality ABM simulations can be built. It is just a different way of thinking. Just like agents, work-items in SIMUL8 can be as unique as necessary. Labels can be used to represent individual attributes and preferences, and then used in incorporating behavioral differences. Of course, values for each of these can be sampled randomly from a variety of distributions or set precisely if desired.

Actions can also be performed on individual work items at particular times. Using the “Schedule Event On Object” Visual Logic command, in combination with unique work item ID labels, events can be scheduled that act on specific work items – perhaps to change a label value representing their current status of a disease.

Currently all software that offers explicit ABM functionality is difficult to use requiring programming in languages such as Java that make the learning curve really steep. But we’re experts in making simulation easy to use so we know we can overcome this. We’re interested to know what your views are on ABM and whether it’s functionality you’d like us to introduce or whether you’d prefer us to invest the time in developing you more fantastic DES features, so please take a minute to fill out our ABM questionnaire here.

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